Black Swan (the Affordable Care Act, not the Movie)!
A Black Swan event is an unprecedented and unpredictable occurrence in human history with wide-spread ramifications. The concept of financial black swan events was first introduced by Nassim Nicholas Talebin in his 2001 book, “Fooled By Randomness”. In his 2007 book, “The Black Swan”, Talebin extended the metaphor to the non-financial world.
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is a Black Swan event for hospitals, physicians, and patients. No one knows precisely what will happen to primary care service demand after January 1st or what the ultimate reimbursement effect of the Act and its potential modifications will be. However, we project a net decrease in hospital acute inpatient admissions and hospital and office outpatient visits. Potentially significant changes in payer mix may also occur, with increases in the number of Medicaid patients and reductions in the number of patients covered by commercial insurance, Blue Cross, and—in some markets—Medicare Advantage.
The only prudent course is to follow events closely, manage resources carefully, and position the organization to move decisively once the trajectory of events becomes clearer. Our business purpose is to provide services that will position the hospital to navigate through any transition that developing circumstances may require. A list of those services may be found on the panel at the left side of this page. Select any of the links shown there for more information.
For some hospitals and the communities they serve, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act poses an existential threat to survival. Select this link if you think the time has come to consider developing a Plan “B” for your hospital and community.